Detalji predmeta

• Stanje Polovno

Аутор - особа Каријон Гарсија, Андрес, 1958-
Papić, Ljubiša, 1952- = Папић, Љубиша, 1952-
Наслов Reliability Modeling and Prediction = Modelovanje i predviđanje pouzdanosti / Andrés Carrión García, Ljubiša Papić
Упоредни наслов Modelovanje i predviđanje pouzdanosti
Врста грађе књига
Језик енглески
Година 2015
Издавање и производња Prijevor : Istraživački centar za upravljanje kvalitetom i pouzdanošću = ǂThe ǂResearch Center of Dependability and Quality Management, 2015 (Čačak : Bajić)
Физички опис XII, 186 str. : ilustr. ; 24 cm
Збирка Kvalitet i pouzdanost u praksi : ǂbiblioteka ǂDQM monografije = Quality and Reliability in Practice : ǂlibrary ǂDQM monographs ; 8
ISBN 978-86-86355-20-1 (broš.)
Напомене Tiraž 100
About the Authors: str. 185-186
Bibliografija: str. 172-178.
Предметне одреднице Технички системи -- Поузданост
Теорија поузданост pouzdanost tehničkih sistema, teorija pouzdanosti, , tehnički sistemi

CONTENTS
PREFACE 1
1. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 3
1.1 A Brief History of Reliability 3
1.2 The Need for Reliability 5
2. STATISTICAL BASIS OF RELIABILITY 6
2.1 Reliability Study Motives 6
2.2 Probability Concept 6
2.3 Conditioned Probability. Independent Events 9
2.4 Theorem of the Total Probability. Theorem of Bayes 9
2.5 Random Variables. Mean Value 10
2.6 Probability Distributions 13
2.6.1 Normal Distribution 13
2.6.2 Exponential Distribution 15
2.6.3 Weibull Distribution 16
2.6.4 Pearson or χ
2
(Chi Square) Distribution 18
3. RELIABILITY: CONCEPT AND BASES 20
3.1 Reliability Definition 20
3.2 Quantification of the Reliability 23
3.3 Failure Rate 25
3.4 Variation of the Failure Rate 27
4. RELIABILITY MODELS 31
4.1 Statistical Distributions 31
4.2 Normal Model 31
4.3 Exponential Model 32
4.4 Weibull Model 34
Reliability Modeling and Prediction
X
5. RELIABILITY ESTIMATION AND TESTING 36
5.1 Introduction 36
5.2 Types of Tests 37
5.2.1 By the Objectives 38
5.2.2 By its Statistics Nature 38
5.2.3 By the Charges Applied 38
5.2.4 By the Stopping Criterion of the Test 39
5.3 Analysis Test Results 39
5.3.1 Reliability Testing for Accidental Failures 40
5.3.2 Reliability Testing for Wear Out Failures 41
5.4 Estimation Testing 41
5.4.1 Exponential Distribution 42
5.4.1.1 Parameter Estimation 42
5.4.1.2 Tests Average Duration. Mean Failure Number 45
5.4.2 Normal Distribution 48
5.4.3 Weibull Distribution 50
5.4.3.1 Numerical Method 50
5.4.3.2 Graphical Method I. Complete Tests 51
5.4.3.3 Graphical Method II. Incomplete Tests 53
5.5 Comparison Testing 55
6. RELIABILITY TESTING PLANS 62
6.1 Advanced Concepts of Reliability Accelerated Testings 62
6.2 Accelerated Testings 64
6.3 Basic Approach 65
6.4 Reliability Shortened Testing Plan 65
7. RELIABILITY BLOCK DIAGRAM 69
7.1 Introduction 69
7.2 Series Systems 70
7.2.1 Definition 70
7.2.2 Exponential Series Systems 71
7.3 Parallel Redundant Systems 72
7.3.1 Definition 72
7.3.2 Exponential Redundant Parallel Systems 74
7.4 Series-Parallel Systems 75
7.5 Non Series-Parallel Systems 77
7.5.1 Delta-Star Transformation 77
Reliability Modeling and Prediction
XI
7.5.2 General systems 79
7.5.2.1 Decomposition 79
7.5.2.2 Tieset Method 80
7.5.2.3 Cutset Method 82
7.5.2.4 Partition Method 83
8. FAILURE MODES, EFFECTS AND CRITICALITY ANALYSIS 87
8.1 Introduction 87
8.2 Implementing The FMECA Method 90
8.3 The FMEA Method 91
8.4 Failure Criticality Analysis Method 95
8.5 FMECA Team 98
9. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS 99
9.1 Introduction 99
9.2 Deductive Approach 100
9.3 FMECA and FTA 102
9.4 Fault Tree Construction 103
9.4.1 Fault Tree Methodology 103
9.4.2 Fault Tree Symbols 103
9.4.3 Defining a Problem and Position of System Boundaries 104
9.4.4 Basic Rules for Fault Tree Construction 108
9.5 Fault Tree and Reliability Block Diagram 109
9.5.1 Reliability Calculation Models 109
9.6 Qualitative Assessment 115
9.6.1 Cut Sets and Path Sets 115
9.6.2 Method for Obtaining CUt Sets 118
9.6.2.1 What is MOCUS? 118
9.6.2.2 The MOCUS Algorithm Application 118
9.6.2.3 Comments 121
9.6.2.4 Reduced Fault Tree 121
9.6.3 The Criticality of a Cut Set (Qualitative Evaluation
of the Fault Tree) 122
9.7 Quantitative Assessment 123
9.7.1 Probability of a Top Event in Case of Fault Tree
Without Events Repetition 123
9.8 Advantages and Disadvantages of Fault Tree Analysis 125
Reliability Modeling and Prediction
XII
10. STATISTICAL SAFETY ANALYSIS 126
10.1 Basic Principles of Statistical Safety Analysis 126
10.2 Initial Events Analysis 127
10.3 Analysis of Accidents Occurrence Scenarios 131
10.4 Risk Calculation 133
10.5 Analysis of Calculation Risk Results 137
11. MAINTENANCE CONCEPTS 139
11.1 Balanced Approach to Maintenance 139
11.2 Corrective Maintenance 140
11.3 Periodic Preventive Maintenance 141
11.4 Predictive Maintenance 141
11.5 Proactive Maintenance 143
11.6 Lean Maintenance 144
11.7 Safety Based Maintenance 144
11.8 Effective Maintenance Concept 147
12. RELIABILITY TERMINOLOGY 149
12.1 Reliability Terms and Definitions 149
REFERENCES 172
SUMMARY 179
REZIME 182
ABOUT THE AUTHORS 185